Commodity markets continue to show substantial divergence in 2026. Crude oil remains the strongest performer following an extraordinary repricing of the energy complex, copper continues to benefit from structural supply constraints, while natural gas, silver, and iron ore remain under pressure.
WTI crude trades at $101.45 per barrel and has gained 76.68% year-to-date, while Brent stands at $108.71 and is up 78.67%.
The Brent-WTI spread is approximately $7.26 per barrel, reflecting the geopolitical risk premium attached to internationally traded crude. WTI's move above $100 is also an important psychological threshold, historically associated with increased concerns around demand destruction and greater political pressure on OPEC+ to increase supply.
The strength of crude oil has been reflected in equity markets, with the S&P 500 Energy sector gaining 49.4% year-to-date as higher prices support upstream earnings.
US natural gas presents a very different picture. Henry Hub futures trade at $3.142/MMBtu, up modestly in the latest session but down 14.73% year-to-date.
Mild weather, elevated storage levels, and persistent domestic oversupply have continued to weigh on prices. The contrast between natural gas's decline and crude oil's more than 75% gains highlights the increasing decoupling of the two energy markets.
Gold trades at $4,165.04 per ounce and is down 3.55% year-to-date. The Dollar's appreciation and elevated US Treasury yields remain important headwinds for the metal, although prices remain historically high in absolute terms.
Silver is experiencing considerably greater pressure. Spot silver trades at $57.529 per ounce and is down 19.70% year-to-date, making it one of the weakest commodities covered. Its industrial exposure to solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicles has left it more sensitive to weakness in global manufacturing, particularly in China.
Copper remains one of the strongest major commodities. LME copper trades at approximately $14,497 per metric ton, up 16.41% year-to-date despite weakness in Chinese industrial activity.
The divergence suggests that supply-side constraints—including mine disruptions, declining ore grades, and underinvestment in new production capacity—continue to outweigh near-term demand concerns. Longer-term demand from electrification, electric vehicles, and grid infrastructure also remains supportive.
Iron ore continues to move in the opposite direction. Singapore iron ore futures trade near $91 per metric ton and are down approximately 15% year-to-date, reflecting continued weakness in China's property and construction sectors.
The contrast between copper and iron ore remains particularly significant: iron ore is closely tied to China's traditional construction economy, while copper is increasingly exposed to electrification, EV adoption, and the infrastructure required for the energy transition.
